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We can predict final school marks in year 11 – it’s time to replace stressful exams with more meaningful education

<p>Year 12 students around Australia are preparing to sit their final exams&period; For many young people this is one of the most stressful parts of school&comma; with their future <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;abc&period;net&period;au&sol;news&sol;2017-10-11&sol;year-12-exams-are-they-worth-the-stress&sol;9029260">supposedly coming down to one number<&sol;a>&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>This is an outdated way of finishing school and working out what students do in the next phase of their lives&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Universities and TAFEs are increasingly using other methods – such as interviews or portfolios – to offer places to school leavers&period; In 2021&comma; more than 25&comma;000 NSW students applied for an <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;smh&period;com&period;au&sol;national&sol;nsw&sol;universities-bypass-atars-as-record-number-of-students-receive-early-offers-20220906-p5bfvf&period;html">early offer<&sol;a> through the &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;schools recommendation scheme”&comma; to lock in a university place before they sit their exams&period; This is up from 5&comma;447 in 2014&comma; suggesting year 12 exams may not be as necessary as we once thought&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Our research shows you can reliably predict a student’s year 12 results by year 11&period; This also suggests we don’t need a battery of stressful exams to work out if a student is suited for tertiary education&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>This gives us the opportunity to radically rethink how the final years of school are structured&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Our research<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>Two years ago&comma; we <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;theconversation&period;com&sol;we-know-by-year-11-what-mark-students-will-get-in-year-12-do-we-still-need-a-stressful-exam-140746">studied<&sol;a> more than 10&comma;000 students in the Catholic Education Diocese of Paramatta&comma; NSW&period; We have repeated the study and our work now includes 20&comma;000 students across 21 exam areas&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<figure class&equals;"align-center "><img src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;45&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;754&amp&semi;fit&equals;clip" sizes&equals;"&lpar;min-width&colon; 1466px&rpar; 754px&comma; &lpar;max-width&colon; 599px&rpar; 100vw&comma; &lpar;min-width&colon; 600px&rpar; 600px&comma; 237px" srcset&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;45&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;600&amp&semi;h&equals;400&amp&semi;fit&equals;crop&amp&semi;dpr&equals;1 600w&comma; https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;30&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;600&amp&semi;h&equals;400&amp&semi;fit&equals;crop&amp&semi;dpr&equals;2 1200w&comma; https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;15&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;600&amp&semi;h&equals;400&amp&semi;fit&equals;crop&amp&semi;dpr&equals;3 1800w&comma; https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;45&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;754&amp&semi;h&equals;503&amp&semi;fit&equals;crop&amp&semi;dpr&equals;1 754w&comma; https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;30&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;754&amp&semi;h&equals;503&amp&semi;fit&equals;crop&amp&semi;dpr&equals;2 1508w&comma; https&colon;&sol;&sol;images&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;files&sol;484774&sol;original&sol;file-20220915-9420-ahb3e1&period;jpg&quest;ixlib&equals;rb-1&period;1&period;0&amp&semi;q&equals;15&amp&semi;auto&equals;format&amp&semi;w&equals;754&amp&semi;h&equals;503&amp&semi;fit&equals;crop&amp&semi;dpr&equals;3 2262w" alt&equals;"Students doing year 12 exams in 2021&period;" &sol;><figcaption><span class&equals;"caption">Students sitting their year 12 English exams in NSW in 2021&period;<&sol;span> <span class&equals;"attribution"><span class&equals;"source">Mick Tsikas&sol;AAP<&sol;span><&sol;span><&sol;figcaption><&sol;figure>&NewLine;<p>We used <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;igi-global&period;com&sol;chapter&sol;analytics-framework-for-k-12-school-systems&sol;193558">predictive analytics<&sol;a> which links multiple pieces of information about student progression through school&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>We used 17 variables including year 9 NAPLAN scores&comma; Higher School Certificate subject choices and year 11 attendance&period; We also use demographic information&comma; such as how long a student has lived in Australia and a school’s socioeconomic rating&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Across both our studies&comma; we found we could predict year 12 results in year 11&comma; with a 93&percnt; accuracy rate&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Our purpose here is not to label students&comma; but to change the focus of school and the efforts of students and teachers&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>What can we do differently in schools&quest;<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>We are already seeing the beginnings of <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;bigpicture&period;org&period;au&sol;">new ways<&sol;a> of &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;doing school” in Australia&period; Some schools are changing their focus from year 12 exams to students doing internships&comma; creating portfolios of work&comma; doing TAFE or university certificates&comma; or doing an overseas exchange&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>In British Columbia&comma; Canada&comma; final school assessments include a project that connects &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;real-world” applications of the curriculum for each student&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>In Estonia&comma; now among the world leaders in education&comma; traditional &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;knowledge and understanding” approaches have been replaced with a strong emphasis on critical thinking&comma; problem-solving&comma; entrepreneurship&comma; digital skills and citizenship&period; These are all qualities that fit with both employers’ needs and measures of success in the adult world&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Students undertake a cross-disciplinary <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;thetimes&period;co&period;uk&sol;article&sol;times-education-commission-how-estonia-does-it-lessons-from-europe-s-best-school-system-qm7xt7n9s">creative project<&sol;a> to graduate from the equivalent of year 10 – an example might be studying the impact of music on managing the onset of dementia in older people&period; They then do a research project before finishing high school&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<h2>Year 12 exams are outdated<&sol;h2>&NewLine;<p>High school as we’ve known it has been dominated by high stakes&comma; high-pressure exams that have outlived their usefulness&period; If we can reliably predict the results&comma; we don’t need the tests&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>We know young people’s mental health is already poor&comma; and has <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;www&period;aare&period;edu&period;au&sol;blog&sol;&quest;p&equals;14257&num;respond">suffered further<&sol;a> during COVID&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>We should be looking for ways to improve&comma; rather than exacerbate this&period; We also know universities are increasingly open to other ways of admitting students&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>There is an enormous opportunity here to reallocate resources and create a modern&comma; meaningful school experience that excites young people&period; It can encourage them to seek career-building activities&comma; study overseas&comma; learn languages or follow passion projects – not just study for stressful exams that tell us what we already know&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><em>The research for this piece is a continuation of the work initiated by Dr Raju Veranasi for his 2021 Phd at the University of Newcastle&period;<&sol;em><&excl;-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag&period; Please DO NOT REMOVE&period; --><img style&equals;"border&colon; none &excl;important&semi; box-shadow&colon; none &excl;important&semi; margin&colon; 0 &excl;important&semi; max-height&colon; 1px &excl;important&semi; max-width&colon; 1px &excl;important&semi; min-height&colon; 1px &excl;important&semi; min-width&colon; 1px &excl;important&semi; opacity&colon; 0 &excl;important&semi; outline&colon; none &excl;important&semi; padding&colon; 0 &excl;important&semi;" src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;counter&period;theconversation&period;com&sol;content&sol;190071&sol;count&period;gif&quest;distributor&equals;republish-lightbox-basic" alt&equals;"The Conversation" width&equals;"1" height&equals;"1" &sol;><&excl;-- End of code&period; If you don't see any code above&comma; please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button&period; The page counter does not collect any personal data&period; More info&colon; https&colon;&sol;&sol;theconversation&period;com&sol;republishing-guidelines --><&sol;p>&NewLine;<h6><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;theconversation&period;com&sol;profiles&sol;john-fischetti-131080">John Fischetti<&sol;a>&comma; Professor&comma; Pro Vice-Chancellor of the College of Human and Social Futures&comma; <em><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;theconversation&period;com&sol;institutions&sol;university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle&period; <&sol;a><&sol;em>This article is republished from <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;theconversation&period;com">The Conversation<&sol;a> under a Creative Commons license&period; Read the <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;theconversation&period;com&sol;we-can-predict-final-school-marks-in-year-11-its-time-to-replace-stressful-exams-with-more-meaningful-education-190071">original article<&sol;a>&period;<&sol;h6>&NewLine;

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